Greater than 100 million individuals are voting on Wednesday in one of many greatest elections on the planet. The competition for the highest prize — the presidency of Indonesia — is a three-way race.

However looming giant is somebody not on the poll.

That individual is Joko Widodo, the incumbent president, who will not be allowed to hunt a 3rd five-year time period and can step down in October. A decade after Mr. Joko offered himself as a down-to-earth reformer and gained workplace, he stays extremely standard.

A lot of his supporters say that he has largely delivered on his promise of placing Indonesia on the trail to changing into a wealthy nation within the coming many years, with bold infrastructure and welfare initiatives like the plan to construct a brand new capital metropolis and a common well being system.

On the identical time, Mr. Joko has additionally overseen what critics describe because the regression of civil liberties. He has stripped down the powers of an anti-corruption company, rammed by means of a contentious labor regulation and, extra not too long ago, appeared to engineer the location of one in all his sons on the poll for vice chairman.

Making issues worse, critics say, is the presidential hopeful he seems to be backing: Prabowo Subianto, a former basic who was as soon as a rival of Mr. Joko and who’s accused of committing human rights abuses when Indonesia was a dictatorship. Mr. Prabowo, whose working mate is Mr. Joko’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, has been forward within the polls.

Mr. Joko’s implicit maneuvering has led to soul-searching amongst many Indonesians.

“Individuals are actually asking: ‘How a lot ought to we sacrifice for growth?’” stated Yohanes Sulaiman, a lecturer who focuses on Indonesian politics at Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani within the metropolis of Bandung.

At stake on this election, critics stated, is the destiny of a younger democracy that’s now the world’s third largest.

Many Indonesians have feared {that a} victory by Mr. Prabowo — who led a crackdown on activists in Indonesia and what’s now East Timor — might ship the nation again to its authoritarian previous. Many keep in mind the brutal, kleptocratic rule of Mr. Prabowo’s former father-in-law and boss, the dictator Suharto.

“The longer term is bleak, awfully bleak,” stated Butet Kartaredjasa, 64, an artist from the town of Yogyakarta. He stated that if Mr. Prabowo gained and confronted protests, abnormal individuals would change into the victims of any ensuing violence.

The election in Indonesia issues far past its borders. The world’s fourth-most-populous nation, it’s of rising strategic significance to each the US and China. As one of many world’s high producers of coal, palm oil and nickel, it sits atop the availability chains of many worldwide corporations and could have a significant bearing on the way forward for the local weather change disaster.

Indonesia is the world’s third-largest democracy, and an necessary outlier in a area the place the need of the individuals is commonly ignored. Despite the fact that democracy is broadly thought of to be imperfect right here, many Indonesians have embraced it as a lifestyle. Elections within the final three many years have been thought of free and truthful, and nobody needs a return to the times of Suharto.

Whereas Mr. Prabowo had led the three-way race, some polls instructed that he can be compelled right into a runoff in June, both in opposition to Anies Baswedan, a former governor of Jakarta, or Ganjar Pranowo, who ran Central Java. Their platforms don’t differ considerably, specialists say, however Mr. Prabowo’s strongman bona fides set him aside.

A lot of Mr. Joko’s assist base shifted to Mr. Prabowo, 72, who has promised to proceed Mr. Joko’s insurance policies and tried to rebrand himself as a gemoy, or cuddly, grandfather.

“I assist Prabowo now due to Jokowi,” stated Rizki Safitri, 36, a voter from Jakarta, referring to Mr. Joko by his nickname. “I need to be certain that Jokowi’s packages which are good are continued and made even higher.”

Mr. Joko’s co-opting of Mr. Prabowo began just a few years in the past, when the president appointed his former election rival as his protection minister.

“For our mates within the U.S., it’s as if Obama instantly determined to assist Trump whereas nonetheless endorsing a Democrat program,” stated Andi Widjajanto, who resigned as a strategist for Mr. Joko in October and commenced working for Mr. Ganjar, one of many different presidential hopefuls.

It’s removed from clear what Mr. Joko’s affect will likely be on Indonesian politics after he leaves workplace or if the ticket of Mr. Prabowo and Mr. Joko’s son, Mr. Gibran, wins. A vice chairman doesn’t maintain a lot energy in Indonesia however can take the highest publish within the occasion of a president’s dying.

“I don’t anticipate Prabowo will enable Jokowi to hold an excessive amount of affect,” stated Natalie Sambhi, government director at Verve Analysis, which research the connection between militaries and societies. “Now, the query turns into, if Prabowo begins to steer Indonesia in a distinct course from Jokowi’s imaginative and prescient, what is going to occur?”

Mr. Gibran’s partnership with Mr. Prabowo has left a lot of Mr. Joko’s allies baffled. Many couldn’t perceive why a person who benefited from direct democracy now has dynastic needs. However they now acknowledge that Mr. Joko had set the ball rolling years in the past.

His son-in-law, Bobby Nasution, the mayor of Medan, is working within the North Sumatra governor’s race. In October, Mr. Joko’s youngest little one, Kaesang Pangarep, 28, joined the youth-oriented Indonesia Solidarity Celebration. Inside two days, he grew to become its chair.

Mr. Jokowi “was once the hope of the individuals; he’s now now not a pacesetter, however a ruler, an official who’s constructing dynastic politics,” stated Maria Sumarsih, 71. Ms. Maria’s son was killed by safety forces in November 1998 throughout a scholar protest at his college.

Final 12 months, Mr. Joko’s brother-in-law forged the deciding vote within the Constitutional Court docket’s determination to decrease the age of vice-presidential candidates, permitting Mr. Gibran, 36, to hitch the race. An uproar adopted, however Mr. Joko doubled down in latest weeks, saying that “a president is permitted to endorse candidates and take sides.” The message to many was unmistakable. By his facet was Mr. Prabowo.

His assertion fueled one other outcry, prompting Mr. Joko to seem on YouTube holding up a poster and pointing to passages from the 2017 Normal Elections Legislation stating that presidents are allowed to take part in campaigning. “Don’t interpret it in any other case,” he stated.

However authorized specialists stated Mr. Joko was selectively quoting the regulation, which additionally states that he should take a depart of absence if he needs to marketing campaign.

Todung Mulya Lubis, who campaigned for Mr. Joko a decade in the past and served as Indonesia’s ambassador to Norway, stated that “having fun with energy with all of the attachments to it” was most likely one thing that had modified his former boss.

“He might have his energy proceed by proxy,” stated Mr. Todung, who’s advising Mr. Ganjar’s authorized staff. However he added: “Being a pacesetter of this pluralistic nation, he ought to perceive that democracy limits his energy.”